Friday, September 05, 2008
Not Nanos, But I'll Take It
Okay, everyone can breath easy. The most likely outcome at this point is a Tory minority with the second most likely outcome is a Liberal minority. The idea of a Tory majority is maybe a greater possibility than finding a hidden colony of Bigfeet, but it doesn't come close in terms of most likely outcomes.
Actually, Tories shouldn't breath easy. The stakes are fairly high. A Liberal minority, with Bloc support, would be able to implement the most intrusive social engineering experiment in Canada's history whose outcomes they cannot predict. Liberals cannot tell you how many pounds of carbon they take out of the system with their experiment. Also, they have many "contingency" funds set aside to make it revenue neutral, meaning: they cannot tell you how many dollars they'll end up making off their carbon tax. (Yes, yes, by "they", I really mean "we, the people" as symbolized by them.)
The Carbon Tax could happen by leaving a few thousand votes here and there in enough close ridings to spring it on Canadians by accident. Tories have to work hard and remember that just beating Liberals isn't enough. A Bloc MP is a vote for the carbon tax under the cynical calculation that since Quebec energy is renewable and relatively carbon free, anti-carbon initiatives don't cost much dans le terroir. A Green MP is a vote for the Dion experiment where everything is unknown except the certain pain it will inflict. On the left, only the NDP have demonstrated some resistance to the reckless cosmetic surgery the Liberals intend to apply to our country.
So, Tories - get to work and be disciplined.
Everyone else can chill out, Toryism doesn't sell in the cities and never will. Minority is the best case scenario because of that fact.
Actually, Tories shouldn't breath easy. The stakes are fairly high. A Liberal minority, with Bloc support, would be able to implement the most intrusive social engineering experiment in Canada's history whose outcomes they cannot predict. Liberals cannot tell you how many pounds of carbon they take out of the system with their experiment. Also, they have many "contingency" funds set aside to make it revenue neutral, meaning: they cannot tell you how many dollars they'll end up making off their carbon tax. (Yes, yes, by "they", I really mean "we, the people" as symbolized by them.)
The Carbon Tax could happen by leaving a few thousand votes here and there in enough close ridings to spring it on Canadians by accident. Tories have to work hard and remember that just beating Liberals isn't enough. A Bloc MP is a vote for the carbon tax under the cynical calculation that since Quebec energy is renewable and relatively carbon free, anti-carbon initiatives don't cost much dans le terroir. A Green MP is a vote for the Dion experiment where everything is unknown except the certain pain it will inflict. On the left, only the NDP have demonstrated some resistance to the reckless cosmetic surgery the Liberals intend to apply to our country.
So, Tories - get to work and be disciplined.
Everyone else can chill out, Toryism doesn't sell in the cities and never will. Minority is the best case scenario because of that fact.
Labels: Campaign 2008
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I would prefer to see polls like that one, because it will motivate the Conservatives to get moving!
Problem for the Liberals is that they can't win with only Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Talk about a rump party.
Problem for the Liberals is that they can't win with only Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Talk about a rump party.
That poll, while a good size sampling of 4013, was taken between July 8 and August 28.
The Environics poll of 2505 was taken between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2.
Additionally, both Crop and Leger polls of about 1000 in Quebec came up with exactly the same results...neither of which even remotely resemble this one.
What the hell is Ipsos thinking about???
Sorry, CC, just couldn't contain myself.
;-)
The Environics poll of 2505 was taken between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2.
Additionally, both Crop and Leger polls of about 1000 in Quebec came up with exactly the same results...neither of which even remotely resemble this one.
What the hell is Ipsos thinking about???
Sorry, CC, just couldn't contain myself.
;-)
Ipsos hasn't done well previously with super-large poll sizes if I recall...
Still all taken together it shows what we already knew.. this election will be tight.
Still all taken together it shows what we already knew.. this election will be tight.
A Bloc MP is a vote for the carbon tax under the cynical calculation that since Quebec energy is renewable and relatively carbon free, anti-carbon initiatives don't cost much dans le terroir.
Probably true (the description of the cynical calculation, I mean), but it betrays a horrible lack of understanding of the calculation of tax incidence. Just for fun, let's suppose I produce a product -say widgets- and the government, in their infinite wisdom, decides to apply a 10% tax to that product. AHA! you cry - the people are finally able to extract a pound of flesh from deaner Inc. But, it might not be that easy...
Until now, people have been willing to pay, say $1 per widget - but now there is that 10% tax on widgets, so they will cost $1.10. Now, at $1.10, people will buy fewer of them - so I will lose some sales, and be worse off, and some of the people who would have had benefit of a widget will no longer have one,so they too will be worse off, as well. To maintain my sales and production I may even have to drop my (pre-tax) price to $0.96 or something. But note that the people buying the widgets are paying more than they used to - clearly, the evil dcardno is not paying all of the tax; some of it is coming form my customers (All your Base are Belong to Us).
The exact ratio of how much tax I actually bear and how much I can pass on to the gullible fools (err... general public) is determined by the ratio of the marginal elasticities of supply and of demand - that's the fancy way economists say "how much people really want to buy or sell this stuff." If the marginal elasticity of demand is low, it means that buyers are not price-sensitive; they will buy what they need, without much regard for price. As you might suspect, in that case, I will pass most of the tax on to them, by simply increasing the total price (or leaving the pre-tax price unchanged) - in that case, all of the tax is passed on to consumers, although I may suffer some very marginal losses due to reduced demand (remember, with low elasticity of demand, people buy the same amount regardless of price...)
So, considering fossil fuels, like heating oil, natural gas, or gasoline just who do you think will really pay the Green Shift Tax: oil producers who are just as happy to ship the stuff to Americans, or people in La Belle Province who might need to heat their homes or drive their cars? Now, there is a clever counter-argument - the people of Quebec will use their own hydro-electric power to heat their homes (although not to drive their automobiles...) Okay, says the implacable law of unintended consequences - that just means they will have that many fewer Megawatt-hours to sell to our friendly American customers - who might just want to buy the gas to run their own generators.
It is unfortunate that politicians are generally economic illiterates (qv, Stephan Dion, Jack!) - but even worse is that they prey on and exploit the same illiteracy among voters.
Probably true (the description of the cynical calculation, I mean), but it betrays a horrible lack of understanding of the calculation of tax incidence. Just for fun, let's suppose I produce a product -say widgets- and the government, in their infinite wisdom, decides to apply a 10% tax to that product. AHA! you cry - the people are finally able to extract a pound of flesh from deaner Inc. But, it might not be that easy...
Until now, people have been willing to pay, say $1 per widget - but now there is that 10% tax on widgets, so they will cost $1.10. Now, at $1.10, people will buy fewer of them - so I will lose some sales, and be worse off, and some of the people who would have had benefit of a widget will no longer have one,so they too will be worse off, as well. To maintain my sales and production I may even have to drop my (pre-tax) price to $0.96 or something. But note that the people buying the widgets are paying more than they used to - clearly, the evil dcardno is not paying all of the tax; some of it is coming form my customers (All your Base are Belong to Us).
The exact ratio of how much tax I actually bear and how much I can pass on to the gullible fools (err... general public) is determined by the ratio of the marginal elasticities of supply and of demand - that's the fancy way economists say "how much people really want to buy or sell this stuff." If the marginal elasticity of demand is low, it means that buyers are not price-sensitive; they will buy what they need, without much regard for price. As you might suspect, in that case, I will pass most of the tax on to them, by simply increasing the total price (or leaving the pre-tax price unchanged) - in that case, all of the tax is passed on to consumers, although I may suffer some very marginal losses due to reduced demand (remember, with low elasticity of demand, people buy the same amount regardless of price...)
So, considering fossil fuels, like heating oil, natural gas, or gasoline just who do you think will really pay the Green Shift Tax: oil producers who are just as happy to ship the stuff to Americans, or people in La Belle Province who might need to heat their homes or drive their cars? Now, there is a clever counter-argument - the people of Quebec will use their own hydro-electric power to heat their homes (although not to drive their automobiles...) Okay, says the implacable law of unintended consequences - that just means they will have that many fewer Megawatt-hours to sell to our friendly American customers - who might just want to buy the gas to run their own generators.
It is unfortunate that politicians are generally economic illiterates (qv, Stephan Dion, Jack!) - but even worse is that they prey on and exploit the same illiteracy among voters.
"That poll, while a good size sampling of 4013, was taken between July 8 and August 28."
Right on, Springer. Who the hell takes a poll over a period of 8 weeks in the middle of the summer and expects it to be meaningful ? I suspect they simply cobbled together about 4 of their normal weekly polls and came up with this drivel.
But Chucker makes a good point. The Liberals, Greens and the Bloc could possibly put something together, particularly if the NDP vote collapses as usual, and given Jack's stated strategy of attacking Harper not Dion that is a distinct possibility.
I think it's going to be a long 5 weeks - not good for my blood pressure.
Right on, Springer. Who the hell takes a poll over a period of 8 weeks in the middle of the summer and expects it to be meaningful ? I suspect they simply cobbled together about 4 of their normal weekly polls and came up with this drivel.
But Chucker makes a good point. The Liberals, Greens and the Bloc could possibly put something together, particularly if the NDP vote collapses as usual, and given Jack's stated strategy of attacking Harper not Dion that is a distinct possibility.
I think it's going to be a long 5 weeks - not good for my blood pressure.
According to Pundit's Guide:
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/08/rural-vs-urban-seats.php
... there are 138 rural riding and all of them will be badly gored by a Dion carbon tax. Also the CPC currently hold 77 rural and 47 urban ridings according to Pundit's guide.
I believe the Tories will increase their rural seats, but the urban seats are up for grabs because the other parties are all in the picture. Harper's job is to sell the CPC to urban voters in this election.
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http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/08/rural-vs-urban-seats.php
... there are 138 rural riding and all of them will be badly gored by a Dion carbon tax. Also the CPC currently hold 77 rural and 47 urban ridings according to Pundit's guide.
I believe the Tories will increase their rural seats, but the urban seats are up for grabs because the other parties are all in the picture. Harper's job is to sell the CPC to urban voters in this election.
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: Saturday, September 06, 2008 8:08:00 PM
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